Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Rams vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-115) after it opened @ 31.5 (-120).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Logan Thomas has run a route on 75.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among TEs.
- Logan Thomas’s 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a substantial gain in his receiving skills over last year’s 25.0 rate.
Cons
- The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
