Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-135) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 67.0% pass rate.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 132.3 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
- With an impressive 75.2% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.
- This week, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 93rd percentile among TEs with 5.9 targets.
- Dalton Kincaid grades out as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 42.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Dallas’s unit has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
