Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-148/+112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+112) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to earn 5.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.
With a remarkable 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (82nd percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the leading TE receiving threats in football.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has posted significant losses this year, currently pacing 63.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts’s 45.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts’s ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling a mere 2.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards