Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-130) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 60.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Cowboys have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- In this week’s contest, Jake Ferguson is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.7 targets.
- Jake Ferguson’s 15.6% Target% this season marks a material growth in his air attack utilization over last season’s 4.5% mark.
Cons
- Jake Ferguson’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 84.5% to 72.2%.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
