Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Isaiah Likely from EV Insight

Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards

Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
The model projects Isaiah Likely to total 4.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
The predictive model expects Isaiah Likely to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game in this week’s contest (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the best in football this year.
Isaiah Likely’s 82.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a noteworthy gain in his receiving ability over last season’s 65.4% mark.

Cons

The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Baltimore Ravens.
Isaiah Likely has posted quite a few less air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (26.0 per game).
The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) to tight ends this year (68.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards