Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect George Kittle to accumulate 5.7 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
After totaling 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has been rising this season, currently pacing 52.0 per game.
George Kittle’s 49.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 42.2.
George Kittle’s 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season signifies a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 49.0 figure.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.5 per game) this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards