Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Jets being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Garrett Wilson’s 97.7% Route Participation Rate this season shows a noteworthy boost in his pass game workload over last season’s 86.4% rate.
- Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accumulate 10.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71%) versus wideouts this year (71.0%).
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projection model to run only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Jets this year (only 55.9 per game on average).
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Jets grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
- Garrett Wilson grades out as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging a lowly 6.73 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 15th percentile among WRs
- With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands as one of the top WRs in the league in football in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
