Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-112) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to accumulate 8.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- Drake London has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
- Drake London has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, catching a mere 58.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 10th percentile among WRs
- Drake London has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging just 7.36 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 15th percentile among wideouts
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
