NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
- In this contest, Diontae Johnson is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 8.1 targets.
- Diontae Johnson has compiled many more air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (89.0 per game).
- Diontae Johnson’s 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 63.2.
- Diontae Johnson has been one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 56.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.41 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Steelers profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
- Diontae Johnson’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 61.4% to 58.0%.
- This year, the imposing Colts defense has conceded a puny 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
