Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
In this contest, Diontae Johnson is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 8.1 targets.
Diontae Johnson has compiled many more air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (89.0 per game).
Diontae Johnson’s 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 63.2.
Diontae Johnson has been one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 56.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.41 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Steelers profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
Diontae Johnson’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 61.4% to 58.0%.
This year, the imposing Colts defense has conceded a puny 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards