Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Demarcus RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-137) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- Demarcus Robinson has been a more integral piece of his team’s pass attack this year (15.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (6.1%).
- Demarcus Robinson has accrued far more air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
- Demarcus Robinson has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
