Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
Dawson Knox has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
Dawson Knox’s 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.
Dawson Knox has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards