MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.6% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
- Dawson Knox has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
- Dawson Knox’s 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.
- Dawson Knox has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
