Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeAndre Hopkins from EV Insight

DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
After totaling 111.0 air yards per game last year, DeAndre Hopkins has shown good development this year, currently pacing 124.0 per game.
DeAndre Hopkins’s 74.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 97th percentile for wideouts.
The Houston Texans defense has been torched for the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (168.0) vs. wideouts this year.
This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a staggering 9.28 yards.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are anticipated by the projection model to call just 64.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
DeAndre Hopkins has accrued substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards