Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Calvin Ridley from EV Insight

Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards

Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-106/-124).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-124) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).

Pros

A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog this week.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the Jaguars to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.49 seconds per play.
The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.6 per game) this year.
With an extraordinary 93.0% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley places among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league.

Cons

The weatherman calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
With a subpar 59.3% Adjusted Completion% (24th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley stands among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.
Calvin Ridley is positioned as one of the worst WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The Ravens pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.1%) to wide receivers this year (61.1%).
This year, the fierce Ravens defense has conceded the least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a feeble 6.6 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards