Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.5 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Adam Thielen to earn 7.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Adam Thielen has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this year (27.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (16.0%).
Adam Thielen’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his receiving talent over last year’s 47.0 figure.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
This year, the tough Falcons defense has given up a mere 127.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-best in the league.
This year, the daunting Falcons defense has conceded a paltry 60.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards