NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.5 per game on average).
- Our trusted projections expect Adam Thielen to earn 7.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
- Adam Thielen has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this year (27.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (16.0%).
- Adam Thielen’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his receiving talent over last year’s 47.0 figure.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- This year, the tough Falcons defense has given up a mere 127.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-best in the league.
- This year, the daunting Falcons defense has conceded a paltry 60.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
