Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-101) after it opened @ 224.5 (-119).
Pros
- Tua Tagovailoa has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (289.0) this year than he did last year (253.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial improvement in his throwing precision over last year’s 64.0% figure.
- With an outstanding 8.67 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa ranks among the best per-play passers in football.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
206
Passing Yards
206
Passing Yards
