Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-104) after it opened @ 270.5 (-123).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Sam Howell to attempt 39.7 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
With an outstanding record of 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game (81st percentile), Sam Howell ranks as one of the leading QBs in football this year.

Cons

The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
This year, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a mere 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
This year, the strong Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a paltry 7.0 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards