Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 298.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 298.5 (-110) after it opened @ 304.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for substantially more yards per game (340.0) this year than he did last year (313.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league versus the Houston Texans defense this year (65.2%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
315
Passing Yards