Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the best in football this year.
- Lamar Jackson has thrown for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (218.0) this season than he did last season (191.0).
- Lamar Jackson’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 67.7%.
- Lamar Jackson comes in as one of the most effective passers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 7.52 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Baltimore Ravens.
- The model projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Jacksonville’s collection of CBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards
193
Passing Yards
