Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-160/+116).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-160) after it opened @ 232.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 36.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Josh Allen has been among the best passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 275.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
