Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more yards per game (257.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 7.25 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
