Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 259.5 (-114) after it opened @ 263.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 67.0% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 132.3 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
This week, Josh Allen is expected by our trusted projection set to average the 5th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.3.
The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a fantastic total of 279.0 adjusted passing yards per game (94th percentile), Josh Allen has been among the leading passers in football this year.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the league (just 201.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in football against the Cowboys defense this year (64.0% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Dallas’s unit has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards