Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Bears
Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 226.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 226.5 (-121) after it opened @ 223.5 (-111).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.2 plays per game.
- Joe Flacco has attempted 43.0 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 99th percentile among QBs.
- The Chicago Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
- The Browns O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Joe Flacco checks in as one of the least accurate passers in the NFL this year with a 55.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
186
Passing Yards
186
Passing Yards
