Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Buccaneers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 277.5 (-115) after it opened @ 270.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.0 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 284.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
- Joe Burrow has been among the best precision passers in football this year with a terrific 68.8% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 211.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, allowing 7.06 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards
284
Passing Yards
