Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s Friday in the Association and we have eight games, most of which are the second in a two-game series between the same teams.
One of the better changes to the NBA schedule was having teams play the same team twice in a row. This helps avoid travel fatigue and generally makes the second game more interesting as teams have adjustments to make. In the past, teams faced a different opponent each night, which could mean a new city every night and does mean whatever you did against your last opponent may not work against the one you face.
I’ve yet to find any betting angles resulting from these games, for example “always bet the team that just lost or didn’t cover” is not a profitable strategy, and no other patterns have presented so far, but this is just the second season of these games. Let’s keep an eye on teams that playing each other a second time in a row, and maybe we can glean something the betting markets are missing. For now, let’s look at each game, see what we can expect, and find some bets of value to make. Of course, since it’s Friday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. To the hoops!
NBA Best Bets for Friday
New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets
Current Line – Pelicans -7, 231.5
My Projection – Pelicans 121, Hornets 109
Key Injuries – LaMelo Ball is out. Mark Williams is doubtful. Zion Williamson is questionable.
The Pelicans are on their second night of a three-game tour of some of the worst teams in the NBA. They smashed Washington by 20 points Wednesday, play Friday in Charlotte and visit San Antonio Sunday. Charlotte is the best of those three, but that’s not saying much, especially without LaMelo Ball. The Hornets are winning about one of every three games, but those wins have come against bad teams or teams in bad schedule spots. New Orleans is rested, has no lookahead spot to distract them, and even without Zion Williamson are better than Charlotte at every position. I can’t say enough how much I like this Pelicans team and hope they can stay healthy for the postseason. They have shooting, elite rim attackers, good post up players, and creators that enable the offense to score points in bunches. On the other side of the floor, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado ensure they have at least one great perimeter defender on the floor at all times while the rest of the squad is full of size, athleticism and defensive effort. It’s a great team and great teams generally blow out bad teams, which is what I expect Friday. They have lost two games in Utah and one in Chicago, but they were missing key pieces against the Jazz and the game against the Bulls was one of the worst schedule spots any team has faced all season. I make New Orleans 11-point favorites and could make a case that the number should be higher with how few healthy centers Charlotte has. Let’s lay the seven points with the Pelicans.
Bet
New Orleans Pelicans -7 (-110, Caesars)
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
Current Line – Lakers -7.5, 234
My Projection – Lakers 121, 112
Key Injuries – Anthony Davis and LeBron James are questionable.
The Lakers beat the Spurs by just three points Wednesday night. Anthony Davis played, LeBron James was out, and San Antonio won the possession battle (offensive rebounds + turnovers) to keep the game close. Normally that would be a surprise, but the closing line was Lakers -3.5, just half a point off the actual spread. That tells me the market thinks both AD and LeBron will on the floor in purple and gold Friday. I’m not sure I agree with that assumption because this is the last game of a road trip for LA, who returns home Friday to play the New York Knicks. It would make more sense to rest someone so they can be fresh to play a better opponent at home, but we’ll have to wait and see. If both play, my projections agree with the market number for the full game, but not for the first quarter. Most derivative betting markets, like quarters and halves, are set based on the full game lines. Said another way, they don’t just take the full game total and divide by four to get the quarter lines, but it’s generally not far off from that. Derivative markets are also slow to correct as a line moves. Sharp bettors focus on the higher limit full game markets and those are the numbers you see move. The submarkets move slower and do not appear to move dynamically. That means there are opportunities to find value in the prices for halves and quarters more easily than in the full game. I love to bet tanking teams in the first quarter. Each season there are a handful of teams that play a strong quarter or half and then put their best players on ice so the second and third string can help the other team win. The Spurs fit that profile to a T. San Antonio has a +9.2 net rating with Victor Wembanyama on the court at center and Devin Vassell on the floor. Trey Jones hasn’t played much, so small sample size, but that jumps up to a +32 net rating. Of course, the rest of the team struggles, but that should be enough to win more than three games so far this season. You see that lineup early in games and the Spurs have been the most profitable team against the spread in the first 12 minutes. I’m going to take them +2.5 in the first quarter.
Bet
San Antonio Spurs 1Q +2.5 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -5, 232
My Projection – Suns 122, Knicks 113
Key Injuries – Mitchell Robinson is out.
The Phoenix Suns finally have their big three playing together. Friday will be just the second time Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have all been on the court together. They had a clunky first game in a loss to the Brooklyn Nets, but that was the second night of a back-to-back. The offensive ceiling of the Suns is almost unlimited. All three of their stars are great shooters, good passers and generally offensively devastating. There should be lots of space on the court and chances to get good, open shots as defenses struggle to cover everyone and react as the ball moves. I’ve even more bullish on their performance tonight which will be their fourth consecutive game at home. Teams tend to shoot better and become efficient on offense the longer they are in their own arena. That time allows them to get comfortable with sight lines and the conditions they’ll face each night. On top of all that, the Knicks are not equipped well to guard the Suns. Mitchell Robinson’s absence is massive for the Knicks on both ends of the court. Defensively, Robinson is the rim protector and a great rebounder who keeps other teams from stealing extra possessions with offensive rebounds. When Robinson is on offense himself, he is devastating near the basket getting offensive rebound after offensive rebound. That not only generates more points for the Knicks but slows down their opponents who have to inbound the ball after a made shot instead of getting out on the fastbreak after a miss. I’m going to back Phoenix in two markets. First, I’ll bet their team total over 119.5 +100. You can take over 118.5 -115 if you like, but I think sportsbooks are charging too much for that point. I’m also going to play the Suns -5.
Bets
Phoenix Suns Team Total Over 119.5 (+100, BetMGM)
Phoenix Suns -5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards +8.5, 259.5
This is already the highest total of the season and possibly the first total of 260 or more that I can ever remember. My model likes the Wizards, but as I’ve said before, my model struggles to understand how to project bad teams that are tanking and games with such a high total. Put the two together and I must disregard my projections. From a matchup perspective, sure, this should go flying over even a total of 270, but I can’t bet on that for a December regular season NBA game. Washington couldn’t guard Indiana even if they wanted to and the Pacers are always more focused on their next shot instead of defense. This is a great game to avoid betting.
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers -16, 235
These two teams played each other Wednesday in Detroit, and the 76ers won by 18. There’s no reason not to expect that to happen again if all of the Philadelphia 76ers play. I say “if,” because they have a game Saturday in Charlotte. Philadelphia generally sits the reigning MVP in one of two games in two nights, especially against bad teams. Even if Embiid does play, these prices are accurate in my opinion. There’s not good angles and we’re not sure whether the most important player in the game is playing or not. We have to pass on this.
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics -4, 224
This game has turned into a mess of injuries for the Celtics on the second night of a back-to-back. Jaylen Brown is questionable and trending out, Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful, Al Horford is out. The Magic beat a healthy Boston team in November and could win again here, but the price on them is too low. The Celtics still have Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Jayson Tatum if Brown is out, and they have some depth still behind that. Kudos to anyone that bet the Magic +6 early this morning, but the market has moved this number out of the bettable range for me.
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors -2, 241.5
We have another matchup of two teams that played Wednesday. The Raptors made 18 of their 34 3-point shots to score 135 points, the most they’ve scored all season. That game closed Toronto -2.5, just half a point different from tonight, which makes perfect sense. Nothing in that last game taught us anything we didn’t already know or materially change the future of either team. I thought this was a good line Wednesday, and I think it’s a good line now. I’ll pass.
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies +3.5, 212
The Rockets beat the Grizzlies by seven in Houston Wednesday, and the line closed at Rockets -10.5. That gives a seven-point adjustment, which tells me Desmond Bane will be on the court after missing Wednesday’s matchup. That’s too big of a move to just be the change in venue even if you consider the Rockets dominance in Houston. I expect another low scoring, ugly game and although I make it 2.5 and have the total a few points higher than market, but those are not big enough edges to bet.
