Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Brock Purdy has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (271.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
Brock Purdy’s 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a noteworthy gain in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 66.4% figure.
Brock Purdy’s passing effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 9.80 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.97 figure last season.
This year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered a staggering 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the largest rate in football.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.5 per game) this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
285
Passing Yards