NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Brock Purdy has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (271.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
- Brock Purdy’s 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a noteworthy gain in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 66.4% figure.
- Brock Purdy’s passing effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 9.80 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.97 figure last season.
- This year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered a staggering 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the largest rate in football.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The model projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.0 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.5 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
285
Passing Yards
285
Passing Yards
