Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-120) after it opened @ 204.5 (-114).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.5%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, allowing 8.39 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Baker Mayfield has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
198
Passing Yards