Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (-115) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Baker Mayfield has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (217.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
This year, the shaky Packers defense has surrendered a whopping 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The model projects Baker Mayfield to throw 33.0 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
With a poor 61.3% Adjusted Completion% (14th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the least accurate QBs in the league.
With a bad 6.43 adjusted yards-per-target (14th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield rates among the least efficient quarterbacks in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards