Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (-115) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Baker Mayfield has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (217.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
- This year, the shaky Packers defense has surrendered a whopping 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The model projects Baker Mayfield to throw 33.0 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- With a poor 61.3% Adjusted Completion% (14th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the least accurate QBs in the league.
- With a bad 6.43 adjusted yards-per-target (14th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield rates among the least efficient quarterbacks in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
