Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (-115) after it opened @ 222.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Andy Dalton has passed for significantly more yards per game (219.0) this season than he did last season (182.0).
Andy Dalton’s throwing efficiency has been refined this season, notching 7.33 yards-per-target compared to just 6.19 rate last season.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (265.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, yielding 8.06 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.

Cons

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards