Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (-115) after it opened @ 222.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Andy Dalton has passed for significantly more yards per game (219.0) this season than he did last season (182.0).
- Andy Dalton’s throwing efficiency has been refined this season, notching 7.33 yards-per-target compared to just 6.19 rate last season.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (265.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, yielding 8.06 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
