NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (-133) after it opened @ 232.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Aaron Rodgers has thrown for a lot fewer yards per game (230.0) this year than he did last year (269.0).
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
