Week 15 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Picking a moneyline underdog that loses 3-0 feels like a win. It should be a win. But that makes two consecutive weeks where our moneyline underdogs have lost by a combined score of 9-0. We trust our process and attack Week 15.

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 15 of the 2023 season,

Week 15 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Indianapolis Colts

(+125, BetMGM)

It certainly takes a leap of faith to bet the Steelers after their performances the last two weeks. Pittsburgh has lost consecutive home games to Arizona and New England, two teams with a combined record of 6-20. We remained undeterred and will back the Steelers in a crucial Week 15 road matchup.

The Steelers still hold a significant advantage over Indianapolis in team DVOA, ranking 10 spots higher (11th to 21st). Despite all their struggles, Pittsburgh ranks higher than the Colts in defensive DVOA and (shockingly) offensive DVOA as well. Throw in their advantage on special teams, and the Steelers are clearly the better team across the board.

The Colts are likely to still be without star running back Jonathan Taylor, who is sidelined by a thumb injury, leaving their running game in the hands of veteran Zack Moss. While Moss was fantastic earlier in the season (two games of 100-plus rushing yards), he has posted just 2.7 and 2.2 YPC in the last two matchups. One was against the stout run defense of Tennessee, but last week’s performance against the Bengals was concerning (27th in run defense DVOA).

After two weeks of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin being an “uncomfortable” home favorite, Pittsburgh is now in the much more lucrative position of being a road underdog. As a betting underdog in the months of December and January, Tomlin is a superb 16-6 ATS, including four straight outright wins.

We are getting a better ML value than usual because of backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky, but I don’t believe he is a significant (if at all) downgrade from starter Kenny Pickett. In 324 pass attempts this season, Pickett has thrown just six touchdowns. The Steelers still have explosive weapons on offense, including tight end Pat Freiermuth, who returned from injury two weeks ago.

I’m backing the better overall team in Pittsburgh who is still projected as the current No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs.