Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.89 seconds per snap.
- The model projects Tony Pollard to accrue 15.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- Tony Pollard has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this year (63.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (41.6%).
- With a terrific total of 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (91st percentile), Tony Pollard ranks among the leading pure runners in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 7.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to run on 37.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This year, the tough Philadelphia Eagles run defense has yielded a feeble 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-best in football.
- When it comes to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Philadelphia’s group of safeties has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
