NFL

Bets

December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jahmyr Gibbs from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards

Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+102/-132).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-132) after it opened @ 39.5 (-118).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.8% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
Among all running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 78th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 40.7% of the workload in his team’s running game.
With a fantastic total of 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs places among the top pure runners in the league this year.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
This year, the tough Chicago Bears run defense has conceded a feeble 81.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 2nd-best in football.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Chicago’s unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards