Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-132) after it opened @ 39.5 (-118).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.8% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
- Among all running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 78th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 40.7% of the workload in his team’s running game.
- With a fantastic total of 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs places among the top pure runners in the league this year.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
- This year, the tough Chicago Bears run defense has conceded a feeble 81.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 2nd-best in football.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Chicago’s unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
