Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-145) after it opened @ 42.5 (-113).
Pros
- After accounting for 19.1% of his offense’s rush attempts last year, James Cook has been more involved in the run game this year, currently making up 49.3%.
- James Cook has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
- The Chiefs defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 4.63 adjusted yards-per-carry.
- The Chiefs safeties project as the 29th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to run on 38.8% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
- James Cook’s 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a noteable diminishment in his rushing proficiency over last season’s 5.8 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
