NFL

Bets

December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

FTN Staff

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-145) after it opened @ 42.5 (-113).

Pros

After accounting for 19.1% of his offense’s rush attempts last year, James Cook has been more involved in the run game this year, currently making up 49.3%.
James Cook has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
The Chiefs defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 4.63 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Chiefs safeties project as the 29th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to run on 38.8% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
James Cook’s 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a noteable diminishment in his rushing proficiency over last season’s 5.8 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards