Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.89 seconds per snap.
The model projects Tony Pollard to accrue 15.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this year (63.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (41.6%).
With a terrific total of 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (91st percentile), Tony Pollard ranks among the leading pure runners in the NFL this year.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 7.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to run on 37.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the tough Philadelphia Eagles run defense has yielded a feeble 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-best in football.
When it comes to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Philadelphia’s group of safeties has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards