Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Packers
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Giants have been the 9th-most run-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.3% run rate.
- The projections expect Saquon Barkley to earn 19.8 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- Among all running backs, Saquon Barkley grades out in the 97th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 66.5% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
- Saquon Barkley has generated 75.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (96th percentile).
- Opposing squads have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) versus the Packers defense this year.
Cons
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 129.8 total plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Giants profiles as the worst in football last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
