Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight

Latavius MurrayRushing Yards

Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-113) after it opened @ 49.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to earn 14.5 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his team’s rushing attack this year (53.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (33.5%).
Latavius Murray has rushed for significantly more yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Cons

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Latavius Murray’s ground efficiency (3.72 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (15th percentile among running backs).
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards