Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-113) after it opened @ 49.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to earn 14.5 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his team’s rushing attack this year (53.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (33.5%).
- Latavius Murray has rushed for significantly more yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Broncos are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Latavius Murray’s ground efficiency (3.72 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (15th percentile among running backs).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
