Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (87.0) this season than he did last season (76.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 7.09 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
- The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards
83
Receiving Yards
