Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Foster MoreauReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Rams vs. Raiders
Right now, Foster Moreau’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-115) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Foster Moreau has gone out for fewer passes this year (77.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (45.1%).
- THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to garner 4.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Foster Moreau has notched far more air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Foster Moreau has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a measly 65.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 18th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.8%) versus TEs this year (68.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
