Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Ravens vs. Rams
Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
- In this week’s game, Kyren Williams is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 94th percentile among running backs with 18.8 rush attempts.
- After taking on 14.1% of his offense’s carries last year, Kyren Williams has played a bigger part in the running game this year, now comprising 69.5%.
- Kyren Williams has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (91.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).
- Kyren Williams’s rushing efficiency has improved this year, compiling 5.45 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.37 figure last year.
Cons
- At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are giant underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 9th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens run defense has surrendered a puny 99.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 10th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards
89
Rushing Yards
