NFL

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December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kyren Williams from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Rams offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
In this week’s game, Kyren Williams is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 94th percentile among running backs with 18.8 rush attempts.
After taking on 14.1% of his offense’s carries last year, Kyren Williams has played a bigger part in the running game this year, now comprising 69.5%.
Kyren Williams has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (91.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).
Kyren Williams’s rushing efficiency has improved this year, compiling 5.45 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.37 figure last year.

Cons

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are giant underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 9th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens run defense has surrendered a puny 99.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 10th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards