Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Keaton MitchellRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Ravens vs. Rams
Right now, Keaton Mitchell’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-112) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.0% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
Cons
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
