Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the moment, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the league (44.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Raiders.
- In this week’s game, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the model to place in the 99th percentile among running backs with 21.4 carries.
- Josh Jacobs has garnered 81.9% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- The Las Vegas offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year at blocking for rushers.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).
- The Minnesota Vikings defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 3.85 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
