NFL

Bets

December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jordan Love from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Jordan LovePassing Yards

Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 229.5 (-131) after it opened @ 222.5 (-117).

Pros

The Giants defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in the league.
The New York cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 57.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to run only 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game.
This year, the stout New York Giants defense has given up a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-best rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards