Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Packers
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 229.5 (-131) after it opened @ 222.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Giants defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in the league.
- The New York cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 57.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to run only 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game.
- This year, the stout New York Giants defense has given up a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
