Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+114/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (+114) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see 138.0 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to garner 17.6 carries in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has picked up 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (83rd percentile).
The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Colts defense this year.

Cons

The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning.
The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack in this contest (62.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.1% in games he has played).
When talking about run-blocking (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards