Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-139) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this season (48.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.9%).
- The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- Jeffery Wilson has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.71 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
