Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
UFC 282 will be the final PPV of the year, and it is action-packed, with 13 exciting fights. Initially headlined by Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixeira, the main event was changed last minute when Prochazka was forced to pull out of the fight due to a severe injury that will require over a year of recovery time. The UFC pivoted to Teixeira vs. Magomed Ankalaev, but Glover did not accept the fight. Luckily while all of these sudden changes were occurring in Vegas, Jan Blachowicz was on his way to Vegas and would land to the news that he was awarded another title shot opportunity against Ankalaev for the vacant LHW belt.
In the co-main event, the organization’s newest cash cow, Paddy “the Baddy” Pimblett, faces New York native Jared “Flash” Gordon. Another scouser appears on the main card when Darren Till returns to the octagon after losing to Derek Brunson last year. It’s been a rough couple of years for Till, as his inactivity leaves many questions to be answered. Saturday night against South Africa’s Driscus Du Plessis, he will get an opportunity to answer those questions. Kicking off the main card, we witness a grappling masterpiece when Ilia Topuria squares up against Bryce Mitchell.
This card is packed with talent and paying the admission for this PPV is worth every penny as this is the last PPV of the year, and Dana White and the matchmakers did not disappoint. As usual, I will be breaking down my favorite fights from the main card and prelims and giving you my best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Odds
Jan Blachowicz +220, Magomed Ankalaev -275
Blachowicz gets another crack at destiny when he faces Ankalaev for the vacant light heavyweight championship Belt. Ankalaev is currently on a nine-fight win streak after losing his debut fight in the UFC in the final round’s final second against Paul Craig. A well-rounded fighter from Dagestan, Ankalaev can not only wrestle when he needs to but also strike and move like a lightweight and pick apart his opponents. Ankalaev averages slightly over 11 minutes of fight time and possesses a 75-inch reach. He fights out of an orthodox stance and accurately averages 3.64 significant strikes landed per minute, landing 54% of strikes landed while defending 60% of significant strikes thrown his way. Ankalaev averages one takedown per 15 minutes and would rather keep the fight standing until he can drag his opponents onto the canvas and finish with vicious ground and pound. His takedown accuracy is a mere 33%, but his takedown defense is solid at 86%. Anywhere this fight goes, Ankalaev can have an answer for Blachowicz.
Blachowicz is a good fighter and possesses the “legendary” polish power, but in this matchup, he is outclassed, and the speed difference is what stands out most to me. Blachowicz averages just over 12 minutes of fight time and has a reach advantage of three inches at 78 inches. He is also accurate while striking as he averages 3.55 significant strikes landed per minute at a 49% rate. Like Ankalaev, Blachowicz defends well and only absorbs two strikes per minute, defending 54% of strikes thrown his way. As much as I love Blachowicz as a person/fighter, this matchup is just not the right one for him, and anyone can understand that saying no in this position would be crazy, but this moment belongs to Ankalaev. If Blachowicz had a camp to prepare for Ankalaev, instead of finding out about the matchup last minute, I’d give him a chance, but this is too short notice against a very high-level fighter that will be crowned the new king of the light heavyweight division.
Best Bet: Magomed Ankalaev by KO/TKO or submission -105
Pimblett vs. Gordon Odds
Paddy Pimblett -275, Jared Gordon +210
With three fights in the UFC and three Performance of the Night bonuses under his belt, Pimblett faces “Flash” Gordon in the co-main event. Gordon will be Pimblett’ s toughest test to date as he looks to use his power and wrestling/Brazilian jiujitsu to derail the UFC’s newest hype train. A brown belt under John Danaher, Gordon is more than capable of taking this fight to the ground and having his way against Pimblett. Gordon will have to bring his best game, as Pimblett looks to get fights finished by submission and is no stranger to any of the attacks he may see from Gordon. Considering both of these fighters can grapple, I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a kickboxing match, as they will cancel each other out on the ground and settle this with strikes. Gordon averages 5.5 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy rate of 58% while defending 57% of strikes and absorbing three strikes per minute. Gordon is a well-rounded fighter and has the edge in the power and striking department as he possesses the better stand-up technique. Pimblett has a significant reach advantage of five inches in this fight, and it will come in handy because Gordon will have to close the distance with his strikes, which could cause him to overextend on power strikes and end up on his back under paddy. Both fighters are very similar in terms of the path to victory and styles, but when the fight hits the ground, Pimblett is constantly searching for the finish averaging 4.7 sub-attempts per 15 minutes. Pimblett is not just hype; everywhere Gordon excels, minus the power, I believe Pimblett is better. Not since Conor McGregor have we seen this much hype behind a fighter, and while I think Gordon poses a real threat this weekend, I will still back Pimblett and take him to find a finish against his most formidable opponent to date.
Best Bets: Pimblett by KO/TKO or submission -120/Pimblett vs. Gordon fight goes the distance -193
Till vs. Du Plessis Odds
Darren Till +155, Driscus Du Plessis -190
Another scouser makes his way to the octagon this weekend when Till steps back into the octagon against South Africa’s own Du Plessis. When Till first entered the UFC back in 2015, he was thought to be the new cash cow and perhaps the second coming of Conor McGregor. The Liverpool native was and still is one of the most dangerous strikers in the game. Till won his first five fights in the UFC until he reached the top of the division and fell short when he challenged Tyron Woodley for the belt. Since that fight back in 2018, Till has been in the octagon sporadically as injuries, the pandemic and canceled fights have led to a couple of years where fans like me thought we would never get to see Till return to his former glory. After losing to Woodley, he would lose to Jorge Masvidal by knockout. Till ended 2019 with a win over Kevin Gastelum, the last time Till would beat anyone in the top 15. Till fought again in 2021 and lost by decision to Robert Whittaker and then came back a year later and lost to Derek Brunson by submission. Regardless of the troubles Till has endured in recent years, he is the best fighter Du Plessis has fought in the UFC thus far. A prospect and former champion on the regional scene, Du Plessis brings power and intensity when he fights. He has a good wrestling/grappling tool kit, and in this matchup, I believe he will have to lean on his grappling against the better striker. Till defends 78% of takedowns and will have to fight with his back against the cage, negating the takedown attempts. Du Plessis also produces a lot of volume as he averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute, throwing all of his strikes with a lot of power. Driscuss will have to grapple to even the playing field, but with only 18% accuracy on his takedowns, I expect this fight to play out standing. I believe this weekend we get to witness the best Till the UFC and fans have seen since his debut.
Best Bet: Du Plessis vs. Till over 1.5 rounds -165
Mitchell vs. Topuria Odds
Bryce Mitchell +115, Ilia Topuria -140
Saturday’s fight of the night not the main event or co-main event, but instead it’s the first fight on the main card, when Mitchell faces Topuria. This fight features two undefeated fighters who will face their toughest challenge to date. Mitchell brings an unorthodox style of fighting to the cage based in wrestling. Mitchell averages 3.40 takedowns per 15 minutes while attempting just under two submission attempts per 15 minutes. Mitchell is dangerous if he can get the fight to the ground, especially if he can get on top and dominate with his size advantage. Mitchell is taller by three inches but only has a one-inch reach advantage, and for him to be successful in this fight he will have to successfully out strike Topuria while avoiding the power that comes with each strike a Topuria throws. Mitchell will also have to our grapple Topuria and find a way to get this onto the mat and create scrambles in hopes of tiring out Topuria. Mitchell averages 13 minutes of fight time and usually drags his opponents into deep waters before finding a finish. Topuria on the other hand averages just over seven minutes of fight time and during his UFC tenure has found three finishes with two of them happening in the first round. Topuria has been known for his powerful combinations and fight ending body shots since stepping into a UFC octagon, but this fight will introduce fans to his grappling prowess and will show just how well rounded he is as a fighter. Topuria averages about the same number of takedowns as Mitchell at 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, but the difference is in the takedown defense where Topuria is 100% compared to Mitchell, who defends 33% of takedowns. Mitchell may welcome the takedowns because he is such a threat on the ground but against Topuria it may not bode well for him if he simply allows Topuria to take him down. Mitchell may threaten on the ground, but I believe Topuria is skilled enough as a jiujitsu blackbelt to negate any sub attempts, and the biggest difference between the two fighters is the power that Topuria possesses. Mitchell may be durable, and his gas tank is second to none, but when facing a fighter with a death touch, it’s probably best to manage your distance and stick to the game plan of grappling heavy. Considering Mitchell did well with arguably one of the best strikers in the game Edson Barbosa, where Barbosa lacked Topuria will not and will be able to use his Greco Roman background to match Mitchell’s ground game.
Best Bet: Mitchell vs. Topuria fight goes the distance -105
Prelims
Perrin vs. Rosas Odds
Jay Perrin +190, Raul Rosas Jr. -230
In the feature prelim of the night, Perrin welcomes the youngest and newest member of the UFC roster in Rosas. Rosas made his debut this year on the Contender Series, and from the moment it started Rosas displayed the type of grappling and experience typically displayed by older fighters. As a lifelong martial artist, Rosas can grapple with the best of the best in the UFC today, and this matchup against Perrin will continue to prove that he belongs on the biggest stage regardless of age. For Perrin to have success in his fights his game plan depends on using his boxing background to close the distance and take fights to the canvas where he can land ground and pound or find a submission. The only issue with that game plan is that Rosas wastes no time finding a taking down and will surely be the first to shoot for a takedown Saturday night. In his debut fight on the Contender Series, Rosas started the fight by faking a flying knee into a double leg takedown and made it look effortless. If Perrin wants to win, he is going to have to use his defensive wrestling to keep this standing and hope to pick Rosas apart with his boxing. Perrin averages three takedowns per 15 minutes, but this weekend I don’t think he will find success in that department and will have to work his hardest to keep this fight standing. I’m siding with Rosas and believe that he will find a finish in this bout.
Best Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO or submission +125/Rosas by submission +175
Curtis vs. Buckley Odds
Chris Curtis +125, Joaquin Buckley -165
Saturday night is so action-packed that we get to witness the treat that is Curtis Buckley for free on the prelims. A matchup that could headline any PPV event is set to put on a fight filled with fireworks, as both fighters possess fight-ending power. Curtis is 3-1 in the UFC and 4-1 in his last five fights with finishes in two out of the last five. Curtis averages six significant strikes landed per minute, and every punch he throws could end the fightm and he is very accurate landing 58% of strikes thrown. If there is a downside, it’s that Curtis absorbs just as much as he puts out in terms of damage, but with durability like his, all he needs to do is connect once and it’s over. Curtis also defends 100% of takedowns, and against the smaller Buckley in this matchup I don’t see Buckley getting many takedowns successfully. Buckley is athletic, fast and powerful and capable of making any opponent a highlight reel. His issue lies in his durability and in the past has been knocked out. Buckley is 5-3 in the UFC and 3-2 in his last five fights and has found a finish or has been finished in all of his fights but two. From a betting perspective, I am expecting Buckley to turn into a wrestler and choose the path of least resistance against Curtis, who just showed a hole in that department against Jack Hermansson. I believe the value is with the dog, Chris Curtis as he is the more durable fighter and also has the tools capable of stopping the takedown attempts and win using his superior boxing.
Best Bet: Chris Curtis moneyline +135
Hernandez vs. Quarantillo Odds
Anthony Hernandez +135, Billy Quarantillo -165
Hernandez faces Quarantillo in another fight that could be featured on any main card and pay-per-view. It’s two exciting featherweights who look for the finish from the sound of the bell. Quarantillo looks to use his grappling as his base and has improved his striking capabilities over time in the UFC. Quarantillo is 4-2 overall in the UFC and both of his losses have come by way of decision. Quarantillo has found a finish in three fights so far in the UFC, and his pace and consistent pressure usually breaks his opponents. Quarantillo averages nearly eight significant strikes landed per minute and connecting on 59% of those strikes thrown. Quarantillo does absorb a lot of strikes as well hit his durability has been enough to carry him through some of the wars he’s has in the UFC. Hernandez on the other hand is built like an NFL player and carries a lot of power and athleticism. Hernandez averages nearly four significant strikes landed per minute and on his best night could be one of the best fighters on earth, but when things aren’t clicking, he can be starched within one round like he did against Renato Moicano in his last match up. I believe this matchup is a coin toss, but I lean with Billy Q here because of the way he is more accurate and also produces more volume.
Best Bet: Billy Quarantillo moneyline -165
