Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- At the moment, the 6th-most run-centric team in the NFL (41.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Denver Broncos.
- The projections expect Javonte Williams to garner 15.0 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- Among all running backs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 86th percentile for carries this year, making up 54.5% of the workload in his team’s running game.
- Javonte Williams has averaged 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (77th percentile).
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Broncos have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- With an atrocious record of 3.65 adjusted yards per carry (22nd percentile) this year, Javonte Williams places among the worst pure runners in football at the position.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
