Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devon AchaneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Dolphins vs. Titans
Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-148) after it opened @ 54.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The model projects Devon Achane to be a much bigger part of his offense’s run game in this contest (43.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.5% in games he has played).
- The Miami offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
- With a fantastic rate of 91.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (99th percentile), Devon Achane has been among the leading RBs in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-least run-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.6% run rate.
- The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
- The Titans defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 3.90 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
