Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-137) after it opened @ 21.5 (-117).

Pros

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
In this week’s game, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projections to rank in the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has made big progress this season, currently pacing 39.0 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
Hunter Henry’s 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a remarkable reduction in his receiving talent over last season’s 72.5% rate.
Hunter Henry’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, notching a measly 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 figure last year.
Hunter Henry’s 2.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates an impressive diminishment in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 4.9% mark.
The Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards