Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-137) after it opened @ 21.5 (-117).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
- In this week’s game, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projections to rank in the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
- After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has made big progress this season, currently pacing 39.0 per game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
- Hunter Henry’s 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a remarkable reduction in his receiving talent over last season’s 72.5% rate.
- Hunter Henry’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, notching a measly 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 figure last year.
- Hunter Henry’s 2.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates an impressive diminishment in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 4.9% mark.
- The Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
