Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-137) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Devin Singletary has averaged 53.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (76th percentile).
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (37.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.9% in games he has played).
- The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- The New York Jets defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 4.21 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
