WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 90.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 90.5 (-115) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 11.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up many more receiving yards per game (79.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on just 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
106
Receiving Yards
106
Receiving Yards
